LONDON (Reuters) - The Conservatives have a 75 percent chance of winning a parliamentary election next year, analysts polled by Reuters said. Reuters polled 21 financial and economic analysts looking at Britain as well as 11 academics and political risk specialists looking at national politics.
The Conservatives have a 75 percent chance of winning a parliamentary election next year, analysts polled by Reuters said.
Reuters polled 21 financial and economic analysts looking at Britain as well as 11 academics and political risk specialists looking at national politics.
They were asked to rate the probability of four potential outcomes, assuming the election took place in May.
Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call a general election between now and June 2010.
With his party trailing badly in opinion polls, Britain suffering its longest recession since records began, and a public deficit ballooning, he faces an uphill battle to extend his party's 12 years in power beyond next year.
The median average forecast was a 48 percent chance of a Conservative win greater than Labour's current working majority of 62, and a 28 percent likelihood of a Conservative victory with a narrower majority.
The analysts gave Labour a 10 percent chance of securing a majority, and saw a 15 percent chance of a "hung parliament" in which neither of the two main parties would hold an overall majority, prompting either a coalition or a minority government.
MARKETS HOPE FOR DECISIVE WIN
With opinion polls generally predicting a Conservative victory, markets are generally hoping for a decisive majority to allow David Cameron freedom of action.
"I cannot think of many scenarios that would effectively diminish Cameron's chance to be prime minister next June," said Exclusive Analysis political analyst Pepe Egger.
"Given the current economic climate, it is highly unlikely that Labour or Brown could make any significant comeback."
Analysts have complained about a lack of policy specifics from the Conservatives, beyond a commitment to austerity and a pledge to ring-fence health and international development spending as well as getting more jobless into work.
"I don't think there's any love for the Conservatives at all -- no one looks to Cameron in the way they did to Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair," Control Risks analyst David Lea said.
"Labour are so unpopular right now, the Conservatives don't need a deal-clinching leader, just as they don't need many policies nine months out (from the likely poll date)."
There was little significant difference in the predictions between the political analysts and those who specialise in financial markets and economics.
The Conservatives have a 75 percent chance of winning a parliamentary election next year, analysts polled by Reuters said.
Reuters polled 21 financial and economic analysts looking at Britain as well as 11 academics and political risk specialists looking at national politics.
They were asked to rate the probability of four potential outcomes, assuming the election took place in May.
Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown must call a general election between now and June 2010.
With his party trailing badly in opinion polls, Britain suffering its longest recession since records began, and a public deficit ballooning, he faces an uphill battle to extend his party's 12 years in power beyond next year.
The median average forecast was a 48 percent chance of a Conservative win greater than Labour's current working majority of 62, and a 28 percent likelihood of a Conservative victory with a narrower majority.
The analysts gave Labour a 10 percent chance of securing a majority, and saw a 15 percent chance of a "hung parliament" in which neither of the two main parties would hold an overall majority, prompting either a coalition or a minority government.
MARKETS HOPE FOR DECISIVE WIN
With opinion polls generally predicting a Conservative victory, markets are generally hoping for a decisive majority to allow David Cameron freedom of action.
"I cannot think of many scenarios that would effectively diminish Cameron's chance to be prime minister next June," said Exclusive Analysis political analyst Pepe Egger.
"Given the current economic climate, it is highly unlikely that Labour or Brown could make any significant comeback."
Analysts have complained about a lack of policy specifics from the Conservatives, beyond a commitment to austerity and a pledge to ring-fence health and international development spending as well as getting more jobless into work.
"I don't think there's any love for the Conservatives at all -- no one looks to Cameron in the way they did to Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair," Control Risks analyst David Lea said.
"Labour are so unpopular right now, the Conservatives don't need a deal-clinching leader, just as they don't need many policies nine months out (from the likely poll date)."
There was little significant difference in the predictions between the political analysts and those who specialise in financial markets and economics.
