CNN UK daily poll update: Conservatives inching up
Two new polls out Sunday show the Conservative lead creeping up and Labour slipping down, which might inform the party leaders' travel plans today: Tory David Cameron is in the Lib Dem-held seat of St. Austell in Cornwall, while Prime Minister Gordon Brown is in Streatham, south London, a Labour-held seat where the Lib Dems came second in 2005.
As the campaign enters its final week, ComRes has some interesting findings that suggest Cleggmania is fizzling out, and that, after all the hype, neither the debates nor the "bigoted woman" gaffe changed voters' minds all that much.
Just after the first debate, nearly two-third of voters said Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg should play a role in the next government. Now it's just under half.
At the same time, the number of people who say the voting system needs to change has risen notably. In February, 47 percent agreed and 48 percent disagreed, a margin of -1 point. Today it's 55 percent in favor and 38 percent against, a margin of +17. (Of course, if the polls are right about the Tories heading to a big enough victory that they don't need the Lib Dems, these numbers won't matter.)
More details below.
YouGov for The Sunday Times has the Conservatives inching forward at the expense of Labour, who come third.
Conservatives 35 percent
Labour 27 percent
Lib Dems 28 percent
Others 10 percent
Today's result shows only small changes, with the Conservatives gaining one point at the expense of Labour, who fall to third place behind the Lib Dems.
Fieldwork 30th April – 1st May; Sample size 1,483
http://today.yougov.co.uk/politics/latest-voting-intention-1st-may
A ComRes for the Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday poll has Conservative lead up to 10 points, highest since February; Lib Dems in third.
Conservatives 38 percent (+2 from April 28 poll)
Labour 28 percent (-1)
Lib Dems 25 percent (-1)
Others 9 percent (No change)
That would leave the Conservatives with 315 seasts - only 11 seats short of a majority - according to the generic seat predictor used by ComRes. (More on swingometers Monday.) Labour would have 236 and the Liberal Democrats 69. Other parties would have 12.
ComRes phoned 1,019 GB adults on 30 April to 1 May 2010
http://www.comres.co.uk/page165464813.aspx
Additional ComRes questions:
Do you agree or disagree with these statements?
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of the leaders' debates.
Agree 19%
Disagree 75%
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of Gordon Brown calling a voter a "bigoted woman."
Agree 11%
Disagree 85%
Here one in five – 19% – of people in social group DE agree. People in the north and midlands are most likely to agree. Also worrying will be that 14% of Lib Dems and 14% of undecideds/refuseds agree, as do 13% of 2005 Labour voters – suggesting the incident will indeed cost Labour some votes even if not on as dramatic a scale as initially thought.
The voting system in this country needs to be changed.
Feb 2010 2 May
Agree 47% 55%
Disagree 48% 38%
Regardless of how I vote, Nick Clegg should play some part in the next Government
17 April 2 May
Agree 64% 47%
Disagree 23% 42%
